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Trend · JPM · 1D

Does Weinstein Stage 2 breakout actually work on JPM? We tested it

We ran Weinstein Stage 2 breakout on JPM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 80 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +200.4%
Win rate 31.7%
Max drawdown −26.7%
Trades 41
Sharpe 0.85
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −6.8% −0.23 9
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +33.6% 0.95 12
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +47.2% 1.44 5
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +20.4% 0.79 8
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.74. Worst period −6.8%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 2 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 2. We ship it on those.

JPM SHIPPED
80/100 EDGE
XOM
98/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
94/100 NONE
RIOT
86/100 NONE
MARA
85/100 NONE
GLD
82/100 NONE
SOFI
72/100 NONE
UBER
68/100 NONE
GOOGL
66/100 NONE
AMD
51/100 NONE
NFLX
50/100 NONE
MU
47/100 NONE
META
35/100 NONE
NVDA
31/100 NONE
MSTR
31/100 NONE
SMCI
26/100 NONE
AVGO
16/100 NONE
SPY
15/100 NONE
TSLA
12/100 NONE
IWM
5/100 NONE
BA
5/100 NONE
AAPL
4/100 NONE
AMZN
4/100 NONE
DIA
0/100 NONE
MSFT
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
QQQ
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above SMA of close over 150 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below SMA of close over 150 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 200% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 26.7% drawdown that lasted about a year and a half, from early 2018 to September 2019, which is where it hurt the most. With a win rate of only 31.7%, the result is clearly driven by a few big winning trades that made up for many small losers. The entry-timing edge is strong, as real entries beat 80% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so it wasn't just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.