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Trend · RIOT · 1D

Does Price / VWMA cross actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran Price / VWMA cross on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 94 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +2104.8%
Win rate 27.0%
Max drawdown −78.3%
Trades 74
Sharpe 0.94
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −17.3% −0.16 7
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +677.6% 1.80 18
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +14.7% 0.46 14
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +10.7% 0.42 20
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.63. Worst period −17.3%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
94/100 EDGE
MSTR
98/100 EDGE
GOOGL
93/100 EDGE
AAPL
84/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
95/100 NONE
XOM
91/100 NONE
NFLX
87/100 NONE
COIN
73/100 NONE
JPM
73/100 NONE
AMZN
63/100 NONE
DIA
53/100 NONE
SPY
51/100 NONE
UBER
51/100 NONE
TSLA
49/100 NONE
MSFT
45/100 NONE
MU
44/100 NONE
QQQ
35/100 NONE
GLD
28/100 NONE
AMD
27/100 NONE
SMCI
26/100 NONE
NVDA
24/100 NONE
IWM
19/100 NONE
META
17/100 NONE
BA
8/100 NONE
AVGO
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above VWMA of close over 20 bars AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below VWMA of close over 20 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a huge amount of money overall, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst stretch was a brutal drawdown of over 78% that lasted more than two years, from early 2021 to mid-2023, meaning you would have watched most of your account evaporate and stay down for a very long time. The win rate is low at only 27%, but the average winning trade was big enough to more than cover the many small losses, which is typical for a trend-following approach. The entry timing is excellent, beating 94% of random entries, so the signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exit rules. The edge was not consistent across all periods, as the strategy was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning one strong period likely carried the overall result.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.