Does Price / VWMA cross actually work on MSTR? We tested it
We ran Price / VWMA cross on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 98 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a substantial profit of over 2,200%, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst moment was a massive -62.62% drawdown that lasted from late November 2024 through early April 2025, meaning the strategy lost nearly two-thirds of its value during that stretch. The win rate is low at just under 30%, so most trades lost money, but the winners were large enough to more than compensate. The entry timing is a standout here, since real entries beat 98% of random entry runs, which means the signal for getting in is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exit rules. The edge was also consistent, showing up in three out of four walk-forward test periods, so the result is not just from one lucky streak.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.