Does Price / VWMA cross actually work on AAPL? We tested it
We ran Price / VWMA cross on AAPL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 84 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a strong profit of 395.70% over 79 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst drawdown hit -29.24%, and it lasted nearly a full year from September 2018 to August 2019, which would have been a painful stretch to hold through. With a win rate of only 40.51%, the strategy relies on a few big winners to make up for many small losses, so the result is not driven by steady, consistent wins. The entry timing is strong, as real entries beat 84% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you buy into the trade is a key part of the edge. The consistency figure shows the edge appeared in all four test periods, so the profit was not just from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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