Does SuperTrend follower actually work on SMCI? We tested it
We ran SuperTrend follower on SMCI through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 77 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 11. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This SuperTrend follower strategy turned a 395% total return, so it clearly made money overall. However, the ride was extremely lumpy, with a brutal 66.88% drawdown that lasted from February to November 2024, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The 62.96% win rate and average trade gain of 10.73% suggest the result was not driven by just a few lucky trades, but that one long losing stretch nearly wiped out the account. The entry-timing edge shows that real entries beat 77% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is doing a solid job of catching good spots, not just relying on exits. The consistency figure shows the edge was present in all four walk-forward periods, so the profitability came steadily across different market phases rather than from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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