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Trend · RIOT · 1D

Does SuperTrend follower actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran SuperTrend follower on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +2615.8%
Win rate 46.9%
Max drawdown −78.9%
Trades 32
Sharpe 0.96
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +150.5% 1.18 4
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +464.4% 1.61 7
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +35.3% 0.66 8
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +89.0% 1.03 6
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.12. Worst period +35.3%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 11 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 11. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
86/100 EDGE
NVDA
90/100 EDGE
AMD
90/100 EDGE
AVGO
89/100 EDGE
MSTR
88/100 EDGE
QQQ
85/100 EDGE
AAPL
79/100 EDGE
META
79/100 EDGE
GOOGL
78/100 EDGE
NFLX
77/100 EDGE
SMCI
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
93/100 NONE
XOM
69/100 NONE
GLD
63/100 NONE
PLTR
62/100 NONE
SOFI
56/100 NONE
BA
56/100 NONE
MSFT
55/100 NONE
TSLA
54/100 NONE
MARA
53/100 NONE
AMZN
39/100 NONE
MU
32/100 NONE
DIA
27/100 NONE
IWM
26/100 NONE
SPY
22/100 NONE
UBER
14/100 NONE
JPM
10/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above SUPERTREND of close over 10 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below SUPERTREND of close over 10 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This SuperTrend follower strategy on RIOT made a massive total return of over 2600%, but the ride was extremely lumpy, not steady. The worst moment was a brutal drawdown of nearly 79% that lasted almost two years, from early 2021 to early 2023, which would have been very painful to hold through. With only 32 trades over the entire period, the average trade return of 44.6% is huge, but the win rate is just under 47%, meaning more than half of the trades lost money. The entry timing edge is strong, with real entries beating 86% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits doing the heavy lifting. The consistency figure shows the edge was present in all four walk-forward periods, so the profit was not just from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.