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Trend · QQQ · 1D

Does SuperTrend follower actually work on QQQ? We tested it

We ran SuperTrend follower on QQQ through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 85 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +199.8%
Win rate 52.5%
Max drawdown −18.0%
Trades 40
Sharpe 1.11
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +36.2% 1.45 8
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +3.5% 0.26 7
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +23.4% 0.97 8
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +23.7% 1.11 8
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.95. Worst period +3.5%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 11 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 11. We ship it on those.

QQQ SHIPPED
85/100 EDGE
NVDA
90/100 EDGE
AMD
90/100 EDGE
AVGO
89/100 EDGE
MSTR
88/100 EDGE
RIOT
86/100 EDGE
AAPL
79/100 EDGE
META
79/100 EDGE
GOOGL
78/100 EDGE
NFLX
77/100 EDGE
SMCI
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
93/100 NONE
XOM
69/100 NONE
GLD
63/100 NONE
PLTR
62/100 NONE
SOFI
56/100 NONE
BA
56/100 NONE
MSFT
55/100 NONE
TSLA
54/100 NONE
MARA
53/100 NONE
AMZN
39/100 NONE
MU
32/100 NONE
DIA
27/100 NONE
IWM
26/100 NONE
SPY
22/100 NONE
UBER
14/100 NONE
JPM
10/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above SUPERTREND of close over 10 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below SUPERTREND of close over 10 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This SuperTrend follower strategy turned a 199.81% total return over 40 trades, so it clearly made money overall. The ride was moderately lumpy, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.11 and a worst drawdown of -18.05% that lasted from March 2018 to January 2019, which is where the strategy hurt most. With a 52.50% win rate and an average trade gain of 3.14%, the result is not driven by just a few huge winners, but rather a steady stream of small wins. The entry-timing edge is strong, as real entries beat 85% of random entry runs, meaning the entry itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The strategy showed consistent profitability across all 4 walk-forward test periods, so the edge is not from one lucky stretch but appears steadily over time.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.