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Trend · GOOGL · 1D

Does SuperTrend follower actually work on GOOGL? We tested it

We ran SuperTrend follower on GOOGL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 78 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +289.0%
Win rate 58.3%
Max drawdown −43.0%
Trades 36
Sharpe 0.92
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +23.6% 0.81 7
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +18.7% 0.63 6
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +8.9% 0.36 9
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +113.0% 2.06 5
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.97. Worst period +8.9%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 11 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 11. We ship it on those.

GOOGL SHIPPED
78/100 EDGE
NVDA
90/100 EDGE
AMD
90/100 EDGE
AVGO
89/100 EDGE
MSTR
88/100 EDGE
RIOT
86/100 EDGE
QQQ
85/100 EDGE
AAPL
79/100 EDGE
META
79/100 EDGE
NFLX
77/100 EDGE
SMCI
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
93/100 NONE
XOM
69/100 NONE
GLD
63/100 NONE
PLTR
62/100 NONE
SOFI
56/100 NONE
BA
56/100 NONE
MSFT
55/100 NONE
TSLA
54/100 NONE
MARA
53/100 NONE
AMZN
39/100 NONE
MU
32/100 NONE
DIA
27/100 NONE
IWM
26/100 NONE
SPY
22/100 NONE
UBER
14/100 NONE
JPM
10/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above SUPERTREND of close over 10 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below SUPERTREND of close over 10 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This SuperTrend follower strategy on GOOGL made a strong total return of 289%, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 42.96% drawdown that lasted from late 2021 to early 2023, which is where the strategy hurt the most. With only 36 trades over the entire test, the result is not driven by a huge number of trades, but the 58.33% win rate and average trade return of 4.57% suggest the edge is spread across many winners rather than a few huge ones. The entry-timing edge is solid, as real entries beat 78% of random entries, meaning the entry signal itself is doing meaningful work to capture the trend. The consistency figure shows the edge held up in all four walk-forward periods, so the profit was not just from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.