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Trend · AAPL · 1D

Does SuperTrend follower actually work on AAPL? We tested it

We ran SuperTrend follower on AAPL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 79 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +605.2%
Win rate 54.1%
Max drawdown −23.2%
Trades 37
Sharpe 1.37
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +119.5% 2.64 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +4.3% 0.25 8
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +24.7% 0.88 7
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +11.9% 0.48 9
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.06. Worst period +4.3%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 11 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 11. We ship it on those.

AAPL SHIPPED
79/100 EDGE
NVDA
90/100 EDGE
AMD
90/100 EDGE
AVGO
89/100 EDGE
MSTR
88/100 EDGE
RIOT
86/100 EDGE
QQQ
85/100 EDGE
META
79/100 EDGE
GOOGL
78/100 EDGE
NFLX
77/100 EDGE
SMCI
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
93/100 NONE
XOM
69/100 NONE
GLD
63/100 NONE
PLTR
62/100 NONE
SOFI
56/100 NONE
BA
56/100 NONE
MSFT
55/100 NONE
TSLA
54/100 NONE
MARA
53/100 NONE
AMZN
39/100 NONE
MU
32/100 NONE
DIA
27/100 NONE
IWM
26/100 NONE
SPY
22/100 NONE
UBER
14/100 NONE
JPM
10/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above SUPERTREND of close over 10 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below SUPERTREND of close over 10 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This SuperTrend follower strategy on AAPL made a strong profit of over 600% on 37 trades, with a solid win rate of 54% and an average gain of 6.45% per trade. The ride was moderately lumpy, as the worst drawdown hit -23.19% and lasted from mid-2024 through May 2025, which is a significant and prolonged period of pain. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry-timing edge shows that real entries outperformed 79% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the load rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge was steady, as the strategy was profitable in all 4 walk-forward test periods, so the performance did not come from one lucky stretch. Overall, this strategy made money with a reliable entry signal, but you need to be prepared for a deep and long drawdown that could test your patience.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.