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Trend · RIOT · 1D

Does 50-day moving average cross actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran 50-day moving average cross on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 92 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +12812.3%
Win rate 21.9%
Max drawdown −73.3%
Trades 73
Sharpe 1.17
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +118.9% 1.07 16
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +770.6% 1.83 9
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +30.6% 0.65 16
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +84.4% 0.96 17
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.13. Worst period +30.6%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
92/100 EDGE
GLD
93/100 EDGE
MARA
91/100 EDGE
AMD
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
NFLX
88/100 NONE
COIN
76/100 NONE
QQQ
63/100 NONE
GOOGL
63/100 NONE
AAPL
62/100 NONE
MU
62/100 NONE
DIA
60/100 NONE
SPY
50/100 NONE
XOM
49/100 NONE
NVDA
46/100 NONE
JPM
45/100 NONE
AVGO
43/100 NONE
TSLA
42/100 NONE
IWM
36/100 NONE
MSTR
32/100 NONE
SOFI
23/100 NONE
BA
23/100 NONE
MSFT
19/100 NONE
AMZN
17/100 NONE
META
14/100 NONE
UBER
9/100 NONE
PLTR
7/100 NONE
SMCI
3/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above SMA of close over 50 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below SMA of close over 50 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a massive amount of money, turning a small starting account into a huge gain of over 12,800%. However, the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst moment was a brutal drawdown of over 73% that lasted from late 2017 through early 2019, meaning you would have watched most of your money disappear before it recovered. The win rate is very low at only about 22%, so the overall profit was driven by a few big winning trades that made up for many small losses. The entry timing has a strong edge, beating 92% of random entries, so the success comes from buying at the right moments, not from how the trades were exited. The edge was also consistent, showing up in every single walk-forward test period, so the profit was not just a fluke from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.