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Trend · MARA · 1D

Does 50-day moving average cross actually work on MARA? We tested it

We ran 50-day moving average cross on MARA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 91 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +1553.4%
Win rate 28.3%
Max drawdown −79.3%
Trades 60
Sharpe 0.93
Equity curve

Equity curve over Oct 2017 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Jul 2019 to Apr 2021 +3834.2% 2.46 5
2 Apr 2021 to Jan 2023 −0.9% 0.41 10
3 Jan 2023 to Oct 2024 +30.5% 0.70 21
4 Oct 2024 to Jul 2026 +11.2% 0.47 11
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.01. Worst period −0.9%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

MARA SHIPPED
91/100 EDGE
GLD
93/100 EDGE
RIOT
92/100 EDGE
AMD
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
NFLX
88/100 NONE
COIN
76/100 NONE
QQQ
63/100 NONE
GOOGL
63/100 NONE
AAPL
62/100 NONE
MU
62/100 NONE
DIA
60/100 NONE
SPY
50/100 NONE
XOM
49/100 NONE
NVDA
46/100 NONE
JPM
45/100 NONE
AVGO
43/100 NONE
TSLA
42/100 NONE
IWM
36/100 NONE
MSTR
32/100 NONE
SOFI
23/100 NONE
BA
23/100 NONE
MSFT
19/100 NONE
AMZN
17/100 NONE
META
14/100 NONE
UBER
9/100 NONE
PLTR
7/100 NONE
SMCI
3/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above SMA of close over 50 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below SMA of close over 50 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a huge amount of money, turning a 1553% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst moment was a staggering 79% drawdown that lasted over two years, from late 2023 into early 2026, which would have been very hard to sit through. The win rate is low at only 28%, meaning most trades lost money, but the winners were massive enough to more than cover the losses. The entry timing is a key strength here, as the real entries beat 91% of random entry runs, so the setup itself is good at picking the right moments to get in. The edge was also consistent, showing up in three out of four test periods, so the result is not just a fluke from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.