Does SMA 20/50 cross actually work on QQQ? We tested it
We ran SMA 20/50 cross on QQQ through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 97 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 225% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 26.87% drawdown that lasted over a year from late 2021 through the end of 2022, which is where the strategy hurt the most. With only 21 trades over the entire period, the result is not driven by a huge number of trades, but the high win rate of 66.67% and average trade gain of 6.24% suggest the wins were solid. The entry-timing edge is very strong, beating 97% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge was present in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the profit did not come from just one lucky stretch, though it was not perfect in every period.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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