Does SMA 20/50 cross actually work on NVDA? We tested it
We ran SMA 20/50 cross on NVDA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 92 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a lot of money, turning a 1379% total return on NVDA using a simple SMA crossover. However, the ride was extremely lumpy and painful, with a massive 63.63% drawdown that lasted over a year from late 2021 through the end of 2022. That single drawdown period was where the strategy hurt most, and it shows that the system can suffer deep, prolonged losses even though it wins 64% of its trades. The entry timing is a major strength here, since the real entries beat 92% of random entry runs, meaning the signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge also appears to be consistent, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, so the result is not just from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.