EdgeStacker
Library
Trend · NVDA · 1D

Does SMA 20/50 cross actually work on NVDA? We tested it

We ran SMA 20/50 cross on NVDA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 92 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +1379.5%
Win rate 64.0%
Max drawdown −63.6%
Trades 25
Sharpe 1.11
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +67.5% 1.04 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +0.2% 0.19 5
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +254.5% 1.93 5
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +50.1% 1.07 7
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.06. Worst period +0.2%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 9 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.

NVDA SHIPPED
92/100 EDGE
MU
100/100 EDGE
QQQ
97/100 EDGE
GLD
97/100 EDGE
GOOGL
96/100 EDGE
META
93/100 EDGE
SPY
86/100 EDGE
AVGO
76/100 EDGE
AMD
76/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSFT
84/100 NONE
NFLX
84/100 NONE
COIN
79/100 NONE
AAPL
74/100 NONE
TSLA
72/100 NONE
MARA
70/100 NONE
JPM
70/100 NONE
DIA
67/100 NONE
RIOT
60/100 NONE
AMZN
51/100 NONE
SOFI
47/100 NONE
IWM
46/100 NONE
MSTR
45/100 NONE
UBER
42/100 NONE
PLTR
34/100 NONE
XOM
20/100 NONE
SMCI
11/100 NONE
BA
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen SMA of close over 20 bars crosses above SMA of close over 50 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (SMA of close over 20 bars crosses below SMA of close over 50 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a lot of money, turning a 1379% total return on NVDA using a simple SMA crossover. However, the ride was extremely lumpy and painful, with a massive 63.63% drawdown that lasted over a year from late 2021 through the end of 2022. That single drawdown period was where the strategy hurt most, and it shows that the system can suffer deep, prolonged losses even though it wins 64% of its trades. The entry timing is a major strength here, since the real entries beat 92% of random entry runs, meaning the signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge also appears to be consistent, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, so the result is not just from one lucky stretch.

Run this on your own account.

Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.

Test it yourself, free
Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.