Does SMA 20/50 cross actually work on MU? We tested it
We ran SMA 20/50 cross on MU through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 100 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a substantial profit, turning a 2,653% total return over 23 trades, with a high win rate of nearly 70% and an average gain of about 20% per trade. However, the ride was very lumpy, as the worst drawdown was a painful 36.58% loss that lasted from January 2022 to August 2023, meaning you would have sat in a deep hole for over a year and a half. The entry timing was excellent, beating 100% of random entry runs, so the edge comes from getting in at the right moment rather than the exits doing the heavy lifting. The consistency figure shows the edge was steady, with profits in all four walk-forward test periods, so the result is not driven by just one lucky stretch. In short, this setup made money reliably over time, but you would need strong nerves to endure that long, deep drawdown.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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