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Trend · MU · 1D

Does SMA 20/50 cross actually work on MU? We tested it

We ran SMA 20/50 cross on MU through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 100 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +2653.1%
Win rate 69.6%
Max drawdown −36.6%
Trades 23
Sharpe 1.28
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +27.6% 0.65 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +78.4% 1.41 2
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +19.4% 0.52 6
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +468.6% 2.22 6
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.20. Worst period +19.4%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 9 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.

MU SHIPPED
100/100 EDGE
QQQ
97/100 EDGE
GLD
97/100 EDGE
GOOGL
96/100 EDGE
META
93/100 EDGE
NVDA
92/100 EDGE
SPY
86/100 EDGE
AVGO
76/100 EDGE
AMD
76/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSFT
84/100 NONE
NFLX
84/100 NONE
COIN
79/100 NONE
AAPL
74/100 NONE
TSLA
72/100 NONE
MARA
70/100 NONE
JPM
70/100 NONE
DIA
67/100 NONE
RIOT
60/100 NONE
AMZN
51/100 NONE
SOFI
47/100 NONE
IWM
46/100 NONE
MSTR
45/100 NONE
UBER
42/100 NONE
PLTR
34/100 NONE
XOM
20/100 NONE
SMCI
11/100 NONE
BA
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen SMA of close over 20 bars crosses above SMA of close over 50 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (SMA of close over 20 bars crosses below SMA of close over 50 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a substantial profit, turning a 2,653% total return over 23 trades, with a high win rate of nearly 70% and an average gain of about 20% per trade. However, the ride was very lumpy, as the worst drawdown was a painful 36.58% loss that lasted from January 2022 to August 2023, meaning you would have sat in a deep hole for over a year and a half. The entry timing was excellent, beating 100% of random entry runs, so the edge comes from getting in at the right moment rather than the exits doing the heavy lifting. The consistency figure shows the edge was steady, with profits in all four walk-forward test periods, so the result is not driven by just one lucky stretch. In short, this setup made money reliably over time, but you would need strong nerves to endure that long, deep drawdown.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.