Does SMA 20/50 cross actually work on AMD? We tested it
We ran SMA 20/50 cross on AMD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 76 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a lot of money overall, turning a 1,075% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst moment was a brutal 57% drawdown that lasted over a year from late 2021 through the end of 2022, which is where the strategy hurt the most. With only 27 trades over the entire period, the result is not driven by a huge number of trades, but the win rate is barely above 50%, meaning nearly half the trades lost money. The entry timing is strong, beating 76% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is doing a lot of the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was not consistent across all market conditions, as it was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, meaning one good stretch likely carried the overall result.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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