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Trend · AMD · 1D

Does SMA 20/50 cross actually work on AMD? We tested it

We ran SMA 20/50 cross on AMD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 76 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +1075.3%
Win rate 51.9%
Max drawdown −57.2%
Trades 27
Sharpe 0.96
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +94.6% 1.17 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 −4.1% 0.09 6
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +17.6% 0.48 6
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +121.6% 1.33 5
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.77. Worst period −4.1%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 9 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.

AMD SHIPPED
76/100 EDGE
MU
100/100 EDGE
QQQ
97/100 EDGE
GLD
97/100 EDGE
GOOGL
96/100 EDGE
META
93/100 EDGE
NVDA
92/100 EDGE
SPY
86/100 EDGE
AVGO
76/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSFT
84/100 NONE
NFLX
84/100 NONE
COIN
79/100 NONE
AAPL
74/100 NONE
TSLA
72/100 NONE
MARA
70/100 NONE
JPM
70/100 NONE
DIA
67/100 NONE
RIOT
60/100 NONE
AMZN
51/100 NONE
SOFI
47/100 NONE
IWM
46/100 NONE
MSTR
45/100 NONE
UBER
42/100 NONE
PLTR
34/100 NONE
XOM
20/100 NONE
SMCI
11/100 NONE
BA
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen SMA of close over 20 bars crosses above SMA of close over 50 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (SMA of close over 20 bars crosses below SMA of close over 50 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a lot of money overall, turning a 1,075% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst moment was a brutal 57% drawdown that lasted over a year from late 2021 through the end of 2022, which is where the strategy hurt the most. With only 27 trades over the entire period, the result is not driven by a huge number of trades, but the win rate is barely above 50%, meaning nearly half the trades lost money. The entry timing is strong, beating 76% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is doing a lot of the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was not consistent across all market conditions, as it was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, meaning one good stretch likely carried the overall result.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.