Does RSI(14) 50-line cross actually work on XOM? We tested it
We ran RSI(14) 50-line cross on XOM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 84 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 48.76% total return, but the ride was very lumpy and difficult. The worst stretch was a brutal 25.64% drawdown that lasted over three years, from late 2022 into late 2025, which would have been painful to sit through. The win rate is low at just 29.17%, meaning most trades lost money, but the average winning trade was large enough to overcome the many small losses. The entry timing shows a real edge, beating 84% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was also fairly consistent, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the result is not just from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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