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Does RSI(14) 50-line cross actually work on MSTR? We tested it

We ran RSI(14) 50-line cross on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 84 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +1020.1%
Win rate 26.1%
Max drawdown −71.6%
Trades 69
Sharpe 0.90
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −21.2% −0.89 15
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +164.7% 1.30 17
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +335.9% 1.77 17
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +31.1% 0.62 17
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.70. Worst period −21.2%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

MSTR SHIPPED
84/100 EDGE
RIOT
99/100 EDGE
XOM
84/100 EDGE
GOOGL
81/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
NFLX
89/100 NONE
MARA
77/100 NONE
SMCI
72/100 NONE
MSFT
59/100 NONE
JPM
55/100 NONE
COIN
51/100 NONE
UBER
48/100 NONE
AAPL
44/100 NONE
META
35/100 NONE
MU
35/100 NONE
GLD
34/100 NONE
SOFI
25/100 NONE
DIA
23/100 NONE
TSLA
18/100 NONE
IWM
17/100 NONE
AMZN
13/100 NONE
AVGO
12/100 NONE
AMD
10/100 NONE
BA
7/100 NONE
NVDA
6/100 NONE
SPY
3/100 NONE
QQQ
2/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 14 bars crosses above 50 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (RSI of close over 14 bars crosses below 50)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a very large total profit of over 1000%, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst moment was a staggering 71.6% drawdown that lasted from February to July 2021, meaning your account would have lost nearly three-quarters of its value during that stretch. Only about one in four trades was a winner, which tells you the strategy relied on a few big home runs to overcome many small losses. The entry timing has a strong edge, beating 84% of random entries, so the signal to buy when RSI crosses above 50 while price is above the 200-day moving average is doing most of the work. The consistency figure shows the edge held up in three out of four test periods, so the profit wasn't just from one lucky streak.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.