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Trend · RIOT · 1D

Does 20 EMA pullback actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran 20 EMA pullback on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 87 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +145.1%
Win rate 65.6%
Max drawdown −39.2%
Trades 93
Sharpe 0.56
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +37.0% 1.02 11
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +20.9% 0.55 19
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 −2.6% 0.12 22
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +57.7% 1.15 27
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.71. Worst period −2.6%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 2 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 2. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
87/100 EDGE
NFLX
92/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
79/100 NONE
GLD
65/100 NONE
IWM
63/100 NONE
MSFT
41/100 NONE
PLTR
33/100 NONE
UBER
28/100 NONE
NVDA
26/100 NONE
DIA
20/100 NONE
AMD
20/100 NONE
XOM
19/100 NONE
JPM
18/100 NONE
SPY
14/100 NONE
META
13/100 NONE
COIN
12/100 NONE
AVGO
11/100 NONE
SMCI
11/100 NONE
GOOGL
10/100 NONE
QQQ
9/100 NONE
MU
9/100 NONE
AMZN
7/100 NONE
TSLA
7/100 NONE
MSTR
2/100 NONE
SOFI
1/100 NONE
AAPL
0/100 NONE
BA
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen EMA of close over 20 bars is above EMA of close over 50 bars AND close crosses below EMA of close over 20 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses above EMA of close over 20 bars), or stop-loss at -8%
Sizing**Position size:** risk 1% of account → position ≈ 12.5% of account (1% ÷ stop 8%).
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 145% total return on 93 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 39% drawdown that lasted over a year, from May 2023 to August 2024, which is where the pain really concentrated. The high win rate of 65% and average trade gain of 1.34% suggest the strategy wasn't reliant on a few home runs, but the drawdown shows it can suffer long losing streaks. The entry timing is strong, beating 87% of random entries, meaning the specific moment you buy into the pullback is carrying the result rather than the exits doing the heavy lifting. The edge also showed up consistently across three out of four walk-forward test periods, so the performance wasn't just a lucky one-time stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.