Does Parabolic SAR flip actually work on NVDA? We tested it
We ran Parabolic SAR flip on NVDA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 80 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a substantial profit, turning a 1,128% total return over 73 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 37% drawdown that lasted from November 2024 to July 2026, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The win rate is just under 55%, meaning it wins slightly more than it loses, but the average trade gained over 4%, so the winners were bigger than the losers. The entry timing has a real edge, beating 80% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is doing a lot of the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up in three out of four walk-forward periods, so the result is not just from one lucky streak.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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