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Trend · NFLX · 1D

Does Parabolic SAR flip actually work on NFLX? We tested it

We ran Parabolic SAR flip on NFLX through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +373.4%
Win rate 49.4%
Max drawdown −35.1%
Trades 79
Sharpe 0.98
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +5.4% 0.28 17
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 −9.0% −0.15 15
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +67.5% 1.38 19
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +42.2% 1.25 16
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.69. Worst period −9.0%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 10 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.

NFLX SHIPPED
86/100 EDGE
MSTR
100/100 EDGE
GOOGL
99/100 EDGE
RIOT
97/100 EDGE
GLD
88/100 EDGE
MU
83/100 EDGE
UBER
83/100 EDGE
SPY
82/100 EDGE
NVDA
80/100 EDGE
JPM
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
82/100 NONE
QQQ
74/100 NONE
COIN
68/100 NONE
AAPL
66/100 NONE
XOM
64/100 NONE
MSFT
61/100 NONE
AMD
43/100 NONE
TSLA
38/100 NONE
DIA
37/100 NONE
META
35/100 NONE
IWM
30/100 NONE
AMZN
26/100 NONE
SMCI
24/100 NONE
AVGO
22/100 NONE
BA
5/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above PSAR(0.02/0.2) of close AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below PSAR(0.02/0.2) of close)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a strong profit of 373% over 79 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 35% drawdown that lasted from mid-2018 to early 2020, meaning you would have watched your account shrink for over a year and a half before recovering. While the win rate is just under 50%, the average winning trade was large enough to overcome the losers. The entry timing shows a real edge, beating 86% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge held up in 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, so the profit was not just from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.