Does Parabolic SAR flip actually work on MSTR? We tested it
We ran Parabolic SAR flip on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 100 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a lot of money overall, turning a 1354% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst moment was a brutal 57% drawdown that lasted over two years, from early 2021 to early 2023, which would have been very painful to sit through. The entry timing is carrying the entire result, because the real entries beat 100% of random entry runs, meaning the exits are not the source of the edge. The edge is also consistent, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the profit did not come from just one lucky stretch. However, the win rate is only 36%, so most trades lost money, but the few winners were large enough to drive the overall gain.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.