Does Parabolic SAR flip actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran Parabolic SAR flip on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 88 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 79% gain on GLD, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a painful 20.6% drawdown that lasted from August 2020 to February 2022, which is where the strategy hurt the most. With a win rate under 40%, most trades lost money, but the winners were large enough to overcome the losers. The entry timing shows a strong edge, beating 88% of random entries, meaning the specific signals to get in are carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up in three out of four test periods, so the performance was not driven by just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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