Does OBV trend confirmation actually work on TSLA? We tested it
We ran OBV trend confirmation on TSLA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 77 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a strong overall profit of over 700%, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 42.78% drawdown that lasted from mid-2017 to early 2019, which would have been painful to sit through. Although the win rate is only about 31%, the average winning trade was large enough to more than cover the losses. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry timing edge is solid, beating 77% of random entries, meaning the entry signal itself is doing most of the work. The edge also shows up consistently across time, since the strategy was profitable in three out of four separate test periods, not just one lucky run.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.