Does OBV trend confirmation actually work on NFLX? We tested it
We ran OBV trend confirmation on NFLX through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 94 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a strong profit of over 300%, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal drawdown of nearly 44% that lasted almost three years, from mid-2018 to early 2021, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The entry timing is clearly carrying the result, since your real entries beat 94% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you get in is far more important than how you exit. The edge was not consistent across all periods, as the strategy was only profitable in three out of four test windows, so the overall profit came from a few strong stretches rather than steady performance. With a win rate of only 28%, the result is driven by a handful of big winners that made up for many small losses.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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