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Trend · NFLX · 1D

Does OBV trend confirmation actually work on NFLX? We tested it

We ran OBV trend confirmation on NFLX through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 94 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +304.5%
Win rate 28.5%
Max drawdown −43.8%
Trades 123
Sharpe 0.89
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −27.6% −0.88 36
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +7.1% 0.32 16
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +50.8% 1.12 31
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +43.7% 1.23 20
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.45. Worst period −27.6%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

NFLX SHIPPED
94/100 EDGE
MSTR
90/100 EDGE
GOOGL
86/100 EDGE
TSLA
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
91/100 NONE
AMZN
75/100 NONE
SMCI
72/100 NONE
MARA
65/100 NONE
UBER
59/100 NONE
AAPL
57/100 NONE
XOM
42/100 NONE
QQQ
34/100 NONE
COIN
33/100 NONE
AMD
28/100 NONE
MU
24/100 NONE
BA
21/100 NONE
DIA
20/100 NONE
JPM
16/100 NONE
GLD
12/100 NONE
IWM
7/100 NONE
NVDA
7/100 NONE
SPY
4/100 NONE
MSFT
2/100 NONE
META
1/100 NONE
AVGO
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen OBV of close crosses above SMA of obv over 20 bars AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (OBV of close crosses below SMA of obv over 20 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a strong profit of over 300%, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal drawdown of nearly 44% that lasted almost three years, from mid-2018 to early 2021, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The entry timing is clearly carrying the result, since your real entries beat 94% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you get in is far more important than how you exit. The edge was not consistent across all periods, as the strategy was only profitable in three out of four test windows, so the overall profit came from a few strong stretches rather than steady performance. With a win rate of only 28%, the result is driven by a handful of big winners that made up for many small losses.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.