Does OBV trend confirmation actually work on MSTR? We tested it
We ran OBV trend confirmation on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 90 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a substantial profit of 1168%, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst stretch was a brutal drawdown of over 77% that lasted more than two years, from early 2021 to mid-2023, which would have tested anyone's patience. With a win rate of only 30%, the strategy relied on a few big winners to overcome many small losses, so the result is not driven by just a handful of trades but by the size of the winners. The entry-timing edge is strong, as real entries beat 90% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits doing the work. The consistency figure shows the edge appeared steadily across three of the four test periods, so it was not a fluke from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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