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Trend · GOOGL · 1D

Does OBV trend confirmation actually work on GOOGL? We tested it

We ran OBV trend confirmation on GOOGL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +243.8%
Win rate 36.2%
Max drawdown −20.7%
Trades 105
Sharpe 0.96
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −7.6% −0.22 21
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +48.9% 1.35 20
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +3.1% 0.21 22
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +76.0% 1.70 22
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.76. Worst period −7.6%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

GOOGL SHIPPED
86/100 EDGE
NFLX
94/100 EDGE
MSTR
90/100 EDGE
TSLA
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
91/100 NONE
AMZN
75/100 NONE
SMCI
72/100 NONE
MARA
65/100 NONE
UBER
59/100 NONE
AAPL
57/100 NONE
XOM
42/100 NONE
QQQ
34/100 NONE
COIN
33/100 NONE
AMD
28/100 NONE
MU
24/100 NONE
BA
21/100 NONE
DIA
20/100 NONE
JPM
16/100 NONE
GLD
12/100 NONE
IWM
7/100 NONE
NVDA
7/100 NONE
SPY
4/100 NONE
MSFT
2/100 NONE
META
1/100 NONE
AVGO
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen OBV of close crosses above SMA of obv over 20 bars AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (OBV of close crosses below SMA of obv over 20 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a strong profit of 243.83% over 105 trades, but the ride was lumpy and uncomfortable. The worst stretch was a 20.70% drawdown that lasted from September 2023 to March 2024, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The win rate was only 36.19%, meaning most trades lost money, but the average winning trade was large enough to overcome the losers. The entry timing is doing most of the work here, since real entries beat 86% of random entry runs, so the edge comes from getting in at the right moment rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge was steady, with profits in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the result is not driven by just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.