Does OBV trend confirmation actually work on GOOGL? We tested it
We ran OBV trend confirmation on GOOGL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a strong profit of 243.83% over 105 trades, but the ride was lumpy and uncomfortable. The worst stretch was a 20.70% drawdown that lasted from September 2023 to March 2024, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The win rate was only 36.19%, meaning most trades lost money, but the average winning trade was large enough to overcome the losers. The entry timing is doing most of the work here, since real entries beat 86% of random entry runs, so the edge comes from getting in at the right moment rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge was steady, with profits in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the result is not driven by just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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