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Trend · MU · 1D

Does MACD zero-line cross actually work on MU? We tested it

We ran MACD zero-line cross on MU through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 91 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +914.7%
Win rate 37.5%
Max drawdown −44.6%
Trades 24
Sharpe 1.03
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −4.6% 0.01 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +14.5% 0.47 4
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +49.2% 0.97 6
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +411.6% 2.15 3
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.90. Worst period −4.6%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 3 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 3. We ship it on those.

MU SHIPPED
91/100 EDGE
GLD
99/100 EDGE
QQQ
83/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
NFLX
88/100 NONE
MSFT
87/100 NONE
SMCI
86/100 NONE
JPM
74/100 NONE
MARA
72/100 NONE
SPY
57/100 NONE
UBER
53/100 NONE
AAPL
47/100 NONE
AMZN
46/100 NONE
COIN
45/100 NONE
AVGO
44/100 NONE
AMD
43/100 NONE
NVDA
36/100 NONE
MSTR
29/100 NONE
TSLA
27/100 NONE
GOOGL
21/100 NONE
IWM
10/100 NONE
META
10/100 NONE
DIA
3/100 NONE
BA
1/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
RIOT
too new TOO NEW
XOM
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen MACD line(12/26/9) of close crosses above 0 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (MACD line(12/26/9) of close crosses below 0)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a lot of money overall, turning a 914% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst moment was a massive 44.64% drawdown that lasted over two and a half years, from April 2021 to November 2023, which would have been very hard to sit through. With only 24 trades and a 37.5% win rate, the result is driven by a few big winners that made up for many losing trades. The entry timing is strong, beating 91% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge was present in three out of four test periods, meaning the strategy's profitability wasn't just a fluke from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.