Does MACD zero-line cross actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran MACD zero-line cross on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 99 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 3. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 123% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. You only won about 37% of your trades, though the average winner was big enough to more than cover the losses. The worst stretch was a brutal 17.5% drawdown that lasted from August 2020 to January 2022, which would have tested anyone's patience. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry timing edge is extremely strong, with real entries beating 99% of random entry runs. This means the entry signal itself is carrying the strategy, not the exits, and the edge showed up consistently across three out of four walk-forward test periods.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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