Does MACD cross above 200 SMA actually work on JPM? We tested it

This strategy made money overall, turning a 138% total return, but the ride was lumpy with a win rate under 50% and a maximum drawdown of about 19% that hit hardest from early February to late April 2025. The worst stretch came during that period, so that's where the pain was concentrated. The results are not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry timing edge is strong: your real entries outperformed 86% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits doing the heavy lifting. The consistency figure shows the edge held up across all four walk-forward test periods, so the profit came steadily over time rather than from one lucky stretch. Overall, this is a strategy that wins less than half the time but makes enough on its winners to overcome the drawdowns.