Does MACD cross above 200 SMA actually work on AAPL? We tested it
We ran MACD cross above 200 SMA on AAPL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 89 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 304% total return on 65 trades over the test period. The ride was moderately steady, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.36, but it had one painful stretch: a 14.30% drawdown that lasted from September to December 2020. That was the worst period, and it shows where the setup struggled most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, since the win rate is nearly 50% and the average trade gained 2.32%. The entry timing is doing much of the work here, because the real entries beat 89% of random entry runs, meaning the MACD cross above the 200 SMA is picking good spots to get in. The edge also shows up consistently, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk forward test periods, so the performance did not come from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.