Does Keltner channel breakout actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran Keltner channel breakout on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 50.66% total return on GLD over the test period. The ride was fairly lumpy, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.57 and a max drawdown of -13.87%, which happened in a concentrated stretch from late January to early February 2026. The worst drawdown was sharp and brief, lasting only a few days, but it cut deeply into your account. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the average trade returned a modest 1.12% and the win rate was 45%, meaning profits came from a mix of winners and losers. The entry timing is doing most of the heavy lifting here, since your real entries beat 86% of random entry runs, so the exits are not the main source of edge. The edge is not consistent across all periods, as the strategy was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning one losing stretch hurt the overall result.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.