Does Keltner channel breakout actually work on TSLA? We tested it
We ran Keltner channel breakout on TSLA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 95 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a substantial profit, turning a 1,265% total return over 31 trades. However, the ride was very lumpy, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 34% that hit hard in early September 2020. That worst stretch shows the strategy can suffer deep, painful losses even though it wins more than half its trades. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry timing edge is strong, beating 95% of random entries, meaning the entry signal itself is doing the heavy lifting. The edge also proved consistent, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk forward test periods, so the performance did not come from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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