Does Inside-bar breakout actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran Inside-bar breakout on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 87 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 3. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 65.5% total return on GLD over 60 trades, but the ride was lumpy. The worst stretch was a drawdown of 10.37% that dragged on for nearly two years, from early 2020 to early 2022, which is where the pain really lived. The win rate was exactly 50%, so half the trades lost money, but the average winner was big enough to keep the total positive. The entry timing shows a strong edge, beating 87% of random entry runs, meaning the specific breakout entry is doing most of the heavy lifting here rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge held up in 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, so the profit wasn't just from one lucky stretch it showed up steadily across different market conditions.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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