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Trend · AAPL · 1D

Does Holy Grail pullback actually work on AAPL? We tested it

We ran Holy Grail pullback on AAPL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 77 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +34.5%
Win rate 81.2%
Max drawdown −12.0%
Trades 16
Sharpe 0.54
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +1.8% 0.18 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +0.8% 0.11 4
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +4.4% 0.77 2
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +2.9% 0.31 1
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.34. Worst period +0.8%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 2 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 2. We ship it on those.

AAPL SHIPPED
77/100 EDGE
META
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
XOM
89/100 NONE
IWM
74/100 NONE
MSTR
73/100 NONE
RIOT
69/100 NONE
AVGO
64/100 NONE
NVDA
60/100 NONE
GLD
50/100 NONE
NFLX
46/100 NONE
MU
39/100 NONE
BA
39/100 NONE
AMZN
38/100 NONE
DIA
33/100 NONE
QQQ
32/100 NONE
MSFT
30/100 NONE
JPM
30/100 NONE
AMD
28/100 NONE
SPY
17/100 NONE
SMCI
16/100 NONE
TSLA
7/100 NONE
MARA
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
UBER
too new TOO NEW
GOOGL
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
COIN
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen ADX line of close over 14 bars is above 30 AND close crosses above EMA of close over 20 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is at or above HIGHEST of high over 10 bars), or 15 bars have passed since entry (time stop)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money, turning a 34.48% total return over 16 trades, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst moment was a brutal -12.03% drawdown that lasted from February to July 2020, which is a very deep hole for a swing trading strategy. The high win rate of 81.25% looks great, but with only 16 trades total, the result could easily be driven by just a few lucky winners. The entry-timing edge is solid, beating 77% of random entries, meaning the entry signal itself is doing most of the work rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge appeared in all four walk-forward periods, so the profit was not just from one lucky stretch, but the small number of trades means you should be cautious about relying on this setup.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.