Does Hull MA cross actually work on MARA? We tested it
We ran Hull MA cross on MARA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 77 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Oct 2017 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 2. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a strong 437% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst stretch was a massive 73.75% drawdown that lasted from November 2021 to June 2023, meaning you would have watched most of your money disappear and stay gone for over a year and a half. With only a 39% win rate, the strategy relied on a few big winners to overcome many small losses, so the result is not driven by consistent small gains. The entry timing edge shows that real entries beat 77% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is doing meaningful work, though the exits also play a role since the edge is not overwhelming. The strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, so the edge did show up across different market stretches rather than coming from just one lucky run.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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