Does 20-day high breakout actually work on MSTR? We tested it
We ran 20-day high breakout on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 85 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 3. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a lot of money overall, turning a 1072% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst stretch was a massive 66.48% drawdown that lasted from February to August 2021, meaning you would have watched more than half your account evaporate during that period. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the average trade returned 14.34% and you had 34 trades, so the wins were meaningful when they hit. The entry timing is doing most of the heavy lifting here, since the real entries beat 85% of random entry runs, meaning getting in at the right moment is critical to the strategy's success. The edge was consistent across time, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the performance did not come from just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.