Does 10-day high breakout actually work on TSLA? We tested it
We ran 10-day high breakout on TSLA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 77 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a lot of money overall, turning an 800% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst moment was a brutal 41.70% drawdown that lasted over a year and a half, from late 2024 to mid-2026, which is where the strategy hurt the most. With only 49 trades over the entire test, the result is not driven by a huge number of trades, but the low win rate of 34.69% means most trades lost money, and the big winners had to carry the load. The entry timing is decent, beating 77% of random entries, so the entry itself is contributing to the result, but the exits are also doing important work since the average trade still made a solid 7.09% despite the low win rate. The edge was not consistent across all periods, as the strategy was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning one stretch of strong performance likely accounts for most of the gains.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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