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Trend · RIOT · 1D

Does 10-day high breakout actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran 10-day high breakout on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 96 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +2418.5%
Win rate 44.7%
Max drawdown −74.7%
Trades 38
Sharpe 0.97
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +47.7% 0.78 4
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +170.0% 1.19 10
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +32.6% 0.63 9
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 −1.1% 0.27 12
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.72. Worst period −1.1%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
96/100 EDGE
MARA
91/100 EDGE
MSTR
89/100 EDGE
TSLA
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
XOM
75/100 NONE
NFLX
70/100 NONE
COIN
68/100 NONE
MSFT
50/100 NONE
SMCI
47/100 NONE
GOOGL
39/100 NONE
GLD
39/100 NONE
SOFI
28/100 NONE
NVDA
27/100 NONE
QQQ
22/100 NONE
JPM
20/100 NONE
AAPL
19/100 NONE
MU
18/100 NONE
AVGO
14/100 NONE
UBER
14/100 NONE
AMD
11/100 NONE
BA
10/100 NONE
AMZN
7/100 NONE
IWM
6/100 NONE
DIA
5/100 NONE
SPY
0/100 NONE
META
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above HIGHEST of high over 10 bars AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below EMA of close over 20 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a huge amount of money overall, turning a small starting account into a massive gain of over 2,400%. However, the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst moment was a staggering 74.66% drawdown that lasted over four years, meaning you would have watched most of your money disappear and had to wait a very long time to get it back. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry timing itself is a strong edge, beating 96% of random entries, so the skill is in getting in at the right moment. The edge also shows up consistently across different time periods, as the strategy was profitable in three out of four walk-forward tests, so the success was not just from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.