Does 10-day high breakout actually work on MSTR? We tested it
We ran 10-day high breakout on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 89 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a large profit of nearly 1,300 percent over its life, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst stretch was a gut-wrenching 61 percent drawdown that lasted from February to July 2021, which would have been very hard to sit through. Only about one in three trades was a winner, but the winning trades were big enough to more than cover the losses. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry timing itself shows a strong edge, beating 89 percent of random entry runs. This means the specific breakout entry is doing the heavy lifting, and the edge was consistent, showing up in three out of four test periods.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.