Does 20-day high breakout actually work on TSLA? We tested it
We ran 20-day high breakout on TSLA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 79 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 3. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a lot of money, turning a 708% total return on 36 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a 39% drawdown from late August to October 2020, which shows that when the breakout failed, it hurt badly. Only about one in three trades was a winner, but the winners were big enough to more than cover the losses, meaning the result is not driven by just a few lucky trades. The entry timing has a real edge, beating 79% of random entry runs, so the specific breakout entry is carrying the result rather than the exits doing all the work. The edge was consistent across all four walk-forward periods, so it is not a fluke from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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