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Trend · TSLA · 1D

Does 20-day high breakout actually work on TSLA? We tested it

We ran 20-day high breakout on TSLA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 79 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +707.8%
Win rate 36.1%
Max drawdown −39.4%
Trades 36
Sharpe 0.99
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +352.2% 2.31 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +37.9% 0.76 10
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +36.1% 1.04 4
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +7.9% 0.34 11
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.11. Worst period +7.9%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 3 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 3. We ship it on those.

TSLA SHIPPED
79/100 EDGE
RIOT
98/100 EDGE
MSTR
85/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSFT
60/100 NONE
MARA
60/100 NONE
AMD
57/100 NONE
XOM
57/100 NONE
COIN
56/100 NONE
SOFI
54/100 NONE
SMCI
49/100 NONE
GLD
45/100 NONE
GOOGL
32/100 NONE
NFLX
31/100 NONE
BA
30/100 NONE
NVDA
26/100 NONE
AVGO
21/100 NONE
UBER
18/100 NONE
QQQ
17/100 NONE
MU
17/100 NONE
IWM
16/100 NONE
JPM
14/100 NONE
AAPL
11/100 NONE
AMZN
7/100 NONE
META
5/100 NONE
DIA
4/100 NONE
SPY
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above HIGHEST of high over 20 bars AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below EMA of close over 20 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a lot of money, turning a 708% total return on 36 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a 39% drawdown from late August to October 2020, which shows that when the breakout failed, it hurt badly. Only about one in three trades was a winner, but the winners were big enough to more than cover the losses, meaning the result is not driven by just a few lucky trades. The entry timing has a real edge, beating 79% of random entry runs, so the specific breakout entry is carrying the result rather than the exits doing all the work. The edge was consistent across all four walk-forward periods, so it is not a fluke from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.