Does EMA 8/21 trend rider actually work on NFLX? We tested it
We ran EMA 8/21 trend rider on NFLX through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 98 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 223% total return on NFLX, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 37.5% drawdown that lasted over two years from mid-2020 to late 2022, which would have been painful to sit through. The win rate is just under 49%, so almost half the trades lost money, but the average winning trade was large enough to compensate. The entry timing is a standout here, since real entries beat 98% of random entry runs, meaning the crossover signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up in three out of four walk-forward test periods, so the result is not just a fluke from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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