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Trend · JPM · 1D

Does EMA 8/21 trend rider actually work on JPM? We tested it

We ran EMA 8/21 trend rider on JPM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +144.1%
Win rate 41.7%
Max drawdown −21.8%
Trades 60
Sharpe 0.90
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +0.0% 0.09 15
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +20.3% 0.74 12
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +23.0% 1.22 11
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +28.6% 1.35 9
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.85. Worst period +0.0%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 9 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.

JPM SHIPPED
93/100 EDGE
NFLX
98/100 EDGE
MSFT
93/100 EDGE
GOOGL
86/100 EDGE
AAPL
84/100 EDGE
SPY
79/100 EDGE
IWM
78/100 EDGE
GLD
76/100 EDGE
QQQ
75/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
99/100 NONE
PLTR
98/100 NONE
MSTR
82/100 NONE
AMD
72/100 NONE
BA
65/100 NONE
DIA
59/100 NONE
COIN
58/100 NONE
AMZN
56/100 NONE
XOM
51/100 NONE
RIOT
47/100 NONE
TSLA
45/100 NONE
UBER
43/100 NONE
AVGO
42/100 NONE
META
30/100 NONE
SMCI
29/100 NONE
NVDA
24/100 NONE
MU
15/100 NONE
SOFI
13/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen EMA of close over 8 bars crosses above EMA of close over 21 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below EMA of close over 21 bars), or stop-loss at -10%
Sizing**Position size:** risk 1% of account → position ≈ 10.0% of account (1% ÷ stop 10%).
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 144% total return on JPM over 60 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 21.82% drawdown that lasted from June 2021 to October 2022, meaning you would have watched your account sink for over a year before recovering. The win rate was only 41.67%, so most trades lost money, but the average winning trade was large enough to overcome the losers. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry timing shows a strong edge, beating 93% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the performance. The edge was also consistent, showing up as profitable in all four walk forward test periods, not just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.