Does EMA 8/21 trend rider actually work on JPM? We tested it
We ran EMA 8/21 trend rider on JPM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 144% total return on JPM over 60 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 21.82% drawdown that lasted from June 2021 to October 2022, meaning you would have watched your account sink for over a year before recovering. The win rate was only 41.67%, so most trades lost money, but the average winning trade was large enough to overcome the losers. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry timing shows a strong edge, beating 93% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the performance. The edge was also consistent, showing up as profitable in all four walk forward test periods, not just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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