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Trend · NVDA · 1D

Does EMA 20/50 trend rider actually work on NVDA? We tested it

We ran EMA 20/50 trend rider on NVDA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 80 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +404.0%
Win rate 28.0%
Max drawdown −41.6%
Trades 25
Sharpe 0.95
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +44.5% 1.22 4
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 −22.0% −1.19 4
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +110.1% 1.53 5
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +19.7% 0.64 7
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.55. Worst period −22.0%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

NVDA SHIPPED
80/100 EDGE
NFLX
97/100 EDGE
META
95/100 EDGE
AMD
94/100 EDGE
MSTR
89/100 EDGE
QQQ
86/100 EDGE
AAPL
79/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
94/100 NONE
COIN
93/100 NONE
XOM
80/100 NONE
UBER
68/100 NONE
MSFT
66/100 NONE
SPY
58/100 NONE
IWM
53/100 NONE
PLTR
52/100 NONE
GLD
45/100 NONE
AVGO
44/100 NONE
DIA
39/100 NONE
GOOGL
30/100 NONE
MU
30/100 NONE
JPM
30/100 NONE
AMZN
29/100 NONE
TSLA
26/100 NONE
BA
19/100 NONE
SOFI
14/100 NONE
SMCI
5/100 NONE
MARA
5/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen EMA of close over 20 bars crosses above EMA of close over 50 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below EMA of close over 50 bars), or stop-loss at -10%
Sizing**Position size:** risk 1% of account → position ≈ 10.0% of account (1% ÷ stop 10%).
Diagnosis

This strategy made a strong 404% overall, but the ride was very lumpy. You only won 28% of your trades, though the winners were large enough to more than cover the losses. The worst period was a brutal 41.58% drawdown that lasted over two years from late 2020 to late 2022, which would have been painful to sit through. The entry timing is doing the heavy lifting here, since the real entries beat 80% of random entry runs, meaning the exits are not the main source of edge. The edge was also consistent, showing up in three out of four test periods, so the result was not driven by just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.