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Trend · AMD · 1D

Does EMA 20/50 trend rider actually work on AMD? We tested it

We ran EMA 20/50 trend rider on AMD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 94 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +620.3%
Win rate 36.4%
Max drawdown −41.3%
Trades 22
Sharpe 0.99
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +32.9% 0.95 3
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +19.8% 0.88 1
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +23.4% 0.60 5
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +154.9% 1.65 5
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.02. Worst period +19.8%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

AMD SHIPPED
94/100 EDGE
NFLX
97/100 EDGE
META
95/100 EDGE
MSTR
89/100 EDGE
QQQ
86/100 EDGE
NVDA
80/100 EDGE
AAPL
79/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
94/100 NONE
COIN
93/100 NONE
XOM
80/100 NONE
UBER
68/100 NONE
MSFT
66/100 NONE
SPY
58/100 NONE
IWM
53/100 NONE
PLTR
52/100 NONE
GLD
45/100 NONE
AVGO
44/100 NONE
DIA
39/100 NONE
GOOGL
30/100 NONE
MU
30/100 NONE
JPM
30/100 NONE
AMZN
29/100 NONE
TSLA
26/100 NONE
BA
19/100 NONE
SOFI
14/100 NONE
SMCI
5/100 NONE
MARA
5/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen EMA of close over 20 bars crosses above EMA of close over 50 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below EMA of close over 50 bars), or stop-loss at -10%
Sizing**Position size:** risk 1% of account → position ≈ 10.0% of account (1% ÷ stop 10%).
Diagnosis

This strategy made a substantial profit of over 620% on AMD, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 41% drawdown that lasted from August 2016 to February 2018, which is where the pain was most concentrated. With only 22 trades over the entire period, the result could be driven by just a few big winners, especially since the win rate is only 36%. The entry timing shows a strong edge, beating 94% of random entries, meaning the specific crossover signals are doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was consistent across all four walk-forward test periods, so the profit did not come from just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.