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Trend · MSTR · 1D

Does CMF zero cross actually work on MSTR? We tested it

We ran CMF zero cross on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 94 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +885.5%
Win rate 45.9%
Max drawdown −59.5%
Trades 61
Sharpe 0.88
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −18.5% −1.23 8
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +165.5% 1.27 24
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +285.6% 1.78 13
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +45.2% 0.77 13
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.64. Worst period −18.5%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

MSTR SHIPPED
94/100 EDGE
RIOT
100/100 EDGE
MARA
93/100 EDGE
GLD
85/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
BA
53/100 NONE
AMD
52/100 NONE
NFLX
51/100 NONE
COIN
51/100 NONE
UBER
50/100 NONE
TSLA
45/100 NONE
MU
43/100 NONE
IWM
38/100 NONE
NVDA
35/100 NONE
AVGO
35/100 NONE
GOOGL
34/100 NONE
SMCI
32/100 NONE
XOM
28/100 NONE
QQQ
17/100 NONE
SPY
13/100 NONE
META
9/100 NONE
JPM
8/100 NONE
AMZN
7/100 NONE
DIA
6/100 NONE
MSFT
5/100 NONE
AAPL
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen CMF of close over 20 bars crosses above 0 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (CMF of close over 20 bars crosses below 0)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a lot of money overall, turning an 885% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst moment was a massive 59.52% drawdown that lasted from February to June 2021, which would have been very hard to sit through. With a win rate of only 45.9%, the strategy relied on a few big winners to overcome many small losses, so the result is not driven by steady, consistent wins. The entry timing is strong, beating 94% of random entries, which means the specific moment you get in is a key part of the edge. However, the consistency figure shows the edge was not evenly spread, as the strategy was profitable in only 3 out of 4 test periods, meaning one stretch of time did most of the heavy lifting.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.