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Trend · GLD · 1D

Does CMF zero cross actually work on GLD? We tested it

We ran CMF zero cross on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 85 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +120.9%
Win rate 48.6%
Max drawdown −27.2%
Trades 70
Sharpe 0.86
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +37.2% 2.07 15
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 −4.9% −0.31 12
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +5.4% 0.38 19
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +39.7% 1.08 18
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.81. Worst period −4.9%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

GLD SHIPPED
85/100 EDGE
RIOT
100/100 EDGE
MSTR
94/100 EDGE
MARA
93/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
BA
53/100 NONE
AMD
52/100 NONE
NFLX
51/100 NONE
COIN
51/100 NONE
UBER
50/100 NONE
TSLA
45/100 NONE
MU
43/100 NONE
IWM
38/100 NONE
NVDA
35/100 NONE
AVGO
35/100 NONE
GOOGL
34/100 NONE
SMCI
32/100 NONE
XOM
28/100 NONE
QQQ
17/100 NONE
SPY
13/100 NONE
META
9/100 NONE
JPM
8/100 NONE
AMZN
7/100 NONE
DIA
6/100 NONE
MSFT
5/100 NONE
AAPL
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen CMF of close over 20 bars crosses above 0 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (CMF of close over 20 bars crosses below 0)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

The strategy made money overall, turning a 120.91% total return, but the ride was fairly lumpy. The worst stretch was a painful 27.21% drawdown that lasted from late January to early June 2026, which is where it hurt the most. With a win rate of just under 49%, nearly half of the trades lost money, so the result is not driven by a few big winners but by the average trade gaining 1.27%. The entry timing shows a strong edge, beating 85% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you buy in is carrying the result rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge held up across 3 out of 4 test periods, so the profit did not come from just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.