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Trend · MSTR · 1D

Does CCI zero-line cross actually work on MSTR? We tested it

We ran CCI zero-line cross on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 100 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +2884.2%
Win rate 35.0%
Max drawdown −58.8%
Trades 60
Sharpe 1.16
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −8.4% −0.34 13
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +261.5% 1.59 12
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +368.6% 1.85 22
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +96.5% 1.13 11
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.06. Worst period −8.4%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

MSTR SHIPPED
100/100 EDGE
GOOGL
95/100 EDGE
TSLA
81/100 EDGE
AAPL
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
99/100 NONE
XOM
91/100 NONE
MARA
87/100 NONE
NFLX
83/100 NONE
AMZN
73/100 NONE
IWM
61/100 NONE
SMCI
60/100 NONE
COIN
58/100 NONE
MU
52/100 NONE
JPM
52/100 NONE
NVDA
51/100 NONE
QQQ
43/100 NONE
SPY
42/100 NONE
UBER
42/100 NONE
AMD
41/100 NONE
MSFT
32/100 NONE
META
32/100 NONE
GLD
29/100 NONE
DIA
4/100 NONE
BA
2/100 NONE
AVGO
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen CCI of close over 20 bars crosses above 0 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (CCI of close over 20 bars crosses below 0)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a very large amount of money overall, turning a starting amount into nearly 29 times its value. However, the ride was extremely lumpy, with a win rate of only 35% and a brutal maximum drawdown of nearly 59% that lasted over two years, from early 2021 to mid-2023. That long stretch was where the strategy hurt the most, and it shows that most trades were losers, but the winners were huge enough to overcome the losses. The entry timing has a massive edge, beating all 100 random entry runs, which means the specific moment you get in is the main driver of the result, not the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up as profitable in three out of four test periods, so the success was not just from one lucky streak.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.