Does Bollinger upper-band breakout actually work on TSLA? We tested it
We ran Bollinger upper-band breakout on TSLA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 83 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a lot of money overall, turning a 765% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 34% drawdown that lasted over two years from mid-2017 to late 2019, which is where it hurt the most. The win rate is only about 42%, meaning most trades were losers, but the winners were big enough to more than make up for them. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry timing itself has a real edge, beating random entries 83% of the time, so the entry signal is carrying the result. The edge also shows up consistently across time, as the strategy was profitable in three out of four separate test periods, not just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.