EdgeStacker
Library
Trend · RIOT · 1D

Does Bollinger upper-band breakout actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran Bollinger upper-band breakout on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 100 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +3431.2%
Win rate 48.1%
Max drawdown −67.7%
Trades 27
Sharpe 1.03
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +13.5% 0.47 4
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +204.0% 1.28 7
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +89.4% 1.06 6
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +1.9% 0.29 8
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.77. Worst period +1.9%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 5 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
100/100 EDGE
MSTR
92/100 EDGE
MARA
88/100 EDGE
TSLA
83/100 EDGE
MSFT
76/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
73/100 NONE
SOFI
65/100 NONE
AMD
63/100 NONE
NFLX
56/100 NONE
JPM
56/100 NONE
GLD
51/100 NONE
XOM
44/100 NONE
MU
37/100 NONE
AVGO
32/100 NONE
QQQ
28/100 NONE
GOOGL
25/100 NONE
SMCI
23/100 NONE
BA
23/100 NONE
AAPL
21/100 NONE
DIA
20/100 NONE
AMZN
19/100 NONE
UBER
19/100 NONE
IWM
17/100 NONE
NVDA
15/100 NONE
SPY
11/100 NONE
META
10/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above BBANDS upper band of close over 20 bars AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below BBANDS middle band of close over 20 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a very large amount of money, turning a small starting account into a huge profit over time. However, the ride was extremely lumpy and painful, with a massive 67.75% drawdown that lasted nearly two years, meaning you would have watched most of your gains disappear and stay down for a long stretch. The worst damage happened between early 2021 and early 2023, which was clearly the hardest period to hold through. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the average trade returned a solid 21.63% and the win rate was nearly 50%, showing consistent winners. The entry timing has a perfect edge, meaning the specific moment you bought was crucial and random entries would not have come close to this result, so the entry signal is doing the heavy lifting. The edge also showed up steadily across all four test periods, so it was not a one-time fluke but a reliable pattern over time.

Run this on your own account.

Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.

Test it yourself, free
Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.