Does Bollinger upper-band breakout actually work on MARA? We tested it
We ran Bollinger upper-band breakout on MARA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 88 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Oct 2017 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a lot of money overall, turning a 424% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst stretch was a massive 78% drawdown that lasted over two years, from early 2024 to mid-2026, which is where the strategy hurt the most. With only 24 trades and a 29% win rate, the result is heavily driven by a few big winners, since the average winning trade returned nearly 25%. The entry timing is strong, beating 88% of random entries, which means the signal to buy when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band while above the 200-day average is a real edge. The consistency figure shows the edge held up in 3 out of 4 test periods, so it is not just one lucky stretch, but the deep drawdown shows the strategy can suffer long losing spells.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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